Hydrologic characterization of the Upper Ayeyarwaddy River Basin and the impact of climate change

Abstract This study characterizes the hydrological regime of Upper Ayeyarwaddy River Basin (UARB) Myanmar under current and future climate change scenarios by using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model simulation results show that annual precipitation, actual evapotranspiration water yields are 1,578, 524 1,010 mm, respectively. These will increase 13–28%, 11–24% 42–198% two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 8.5, for future. There is seasonal variability across cool, hot rainy seasons in agro-ecological regions – mountains, hills inland plains. As other Asian regions, shows wet (rainy) season becoming wetter dry (cool) drier UARB too.